Jefflog

Today, Microsoft releases their much-touted Zune portable music player as a competitor to the reigning champ, the iPod. There’s been a lot of talk about this device in the last few months, not because it will necessarily be the “iPod killer” everyone always talks about, but because Microsoft has the clout to get people talking about it.

I haven’t actually used the Zune, or even seen one in person, so what I’m about to say is purely speculation on my part, but here’s what I think: despite it’s splashy intro and large marketing budget, the Zune will initially be a flop, gradually erode market share from the iPod, and will only eclipse the iPod if Apple falls asleep at the wheel (which it won’t), making the Zune the second-most popular portable music player on the market.

Consider the Zune’s most-touted feature: the ability to send a restricted copy of a song to another nearby Zune wirelessly. Let me explain why this is doomed to fail, at least in the short run.

Throughout most of college and all through graduate school, I used an HP-48 calculator. This was, and still is, the finest calculator you could buy. It was fully programmable, and I would spend hours tap-tapping on it’s tiny keyboard writing little programs for it.

The calculator had this neat feature: you could transfer programs between calculators through an infrared beam. Just place the two calculators facing each other, set up one to send and the other to receive, and it would transmit the program using the Kermit protocol. It was very cool.

Only thing is, I only got a chance to use this feature once, because hardly anyone else had an HP-48. Even when I did come across someone with the same calculator, I didn’t necessarily have any programs I wanted to share with them.

That’s my point. Nobody has a Zune yet, so who exactly are you going to be sharing with, at least in the short term? And when you do find someone with a Zune, do they really want to listen to your crummy music?

This may rectify itself over time as Microsoft begins heavily marketing the device and it falls into the hands of more kids. But, since those kids already have iPods, they’re not likely to get a new player anytime soon, unless their dimwit parents get it for them for Christmas, making Johnny a bit unhappy since all the cool kids have iPods and he’s stuck with lugging this bulky Zune instead.

Even if someone wants a new player, why would they buy a Zune? It’s not cheaper, and for every new feature it has (larger screen, FM tuner), it has a corresponding negative (bulkier size, lack of accessories, not as “cool”). Besides, is anyone going to bother re-encoding all of their music and stop using iTunes just to use a different music player?

That’s about as likely as someone ditching Microsoft Windows and switching to a Macintosh, and we all know how likely that is.