Jefflog

Today, Microsoft releases their much-touted Zune portable music player as a competitor to the reigning champ, the iPod. There’s been a lot of talk about this device in the last few months, not because it will necessarily be the “iPod killer” everyone always talks about, but because Microsoft has the clout to get people talking about it.

I haven’t actually used the Zune, or even seen one in person, so what I’m about to say is purely speculation on my part, but here’s what I think: despite it’s splashy intro and large marketing budget, the Zune will initially be a flop, gradually erode market share from the iPod, and will only eclipse the iPod if Apple falls asleep at the wheel (which it won’t), making the Zune the second-most popular portable music player on the market.

Consider the Zune’s most-touted feature: the ability to send a restricted copy of a song to another nearby Zune wirelessly. Let me explain why this is doomed to fail, at least in the short run.

Throughout most of college and all through graduate school, I used an HP-48 calculator. This was, and still is, the finest calculator you could buy. It was fully programmable, and I would spend hours tap-tapping on it’s tiny keyboard writing little programs for it.

The calculator had this neat feature: you could transfer programs between calculators through an infrared beam. Just place the two calculators facing each other, set up one to send and the other to receive, and it would transmit the program using the Kermit protocol. It was very cool.

Only thing is, I only got a chance to use this feature once, because hardly anyone else had an HP-48. Even when I did come across someone with the same calculator, I didn’t necessarily have any programs I wanted to share with them.

That’s my point. Nobody has a Zune yet, so who exactly are you going to be sharing with, at least in the short term? And when you do find someone with a Zune, do they really want to listen to your crummy music?

This may rectify itself over time as Microsoft begins heavily marketing the device and it falls into the hands of more kids. But, since those kids already have iPods, they’re not likely to get a new player anytime soon, unless their dimwit parents get it for them for Christmas, making Johnny a bit unhappy since all the cool kids have iPods and he’s stuck with lugging this bulky Zune instead.

Even if someone wants a new player, why would they buy a Zune? It’s not cheaper, and for every new feature it has (larger screen, FM tuner), it has a corresponding negative (bulkier size, lack of accessories, not as “cool”). Besides, is anyone going to bother re-encoding all of their music and stop using iTunes just to use a different music player?

That’s about as likely as someone ditching Microsoft Windows and switching to a Macintosh, and we all know how likely that is.

Right now, I’m listening to one of my favorite albums from one of my favorite bands, Rush’s Presto, and memories of my teen years come flooding back.

I remember my dad taking me to a used CD store one evening, and I picked it up after previously buying Moving Pictures and loving that album. We listened to some of the album on the way home, and I think he liked it as well.

At home, I had a pillow chair propped up against the wall and another pillow on the floor in the shape of one of those “Baby On Board” car window signs that said “Genius On Board”. Next to my pillow configuration was a cheap printer stand on which sat a desk lamp and my CD player. During my summers away from college, I could often be found here in the evenings, reading a book while listening to music on my headphones.

My on-campus apartment during my first year at Tulane had a very small bedroom, and with my bed and two desks in there (one for each computer), you practically had to walk in sideways to get through it. My CD player sat on a bookshelf above my bed attached to a pair of Radio Shack speakers plugged in through the headphone jack. A door opened out to a little balcony area, and during thunderstorms I would open my door and turn up the volume. Fresno only got about 10 inches of rain a year, with thunderstorms being exceedingly rare, so storms were always a pleasant treat.

I was a happy teenager.

It’s hard for me to find time to keep this log up to date, and it’s been a while since I wrote about my family, so I’m going to try to combine several posts into one.

Oliver turns five months old tomorrow. He’s starting to sit up, and likes to play with his feet. He slept through the night a couple of days ago, which gives us some hope that “this too will pass”. I still wouldn’t characterize him as an “easy” baby, but every week brings some progress and he becomes more fun.

Maggie dressed up as a witch for Halloween. We hyped up the evening, explaining that she could get candy (CANDY!!) by going to neighbors houses and saying “trick or treat!” After three houses, though, she had had enough and wanted to go home. We spent the rest of the evening answering the doorbell and giving out candy to other kids instead. None of the pictures I took on Halloween night came out very good, so I’ve uploaded a picture at the zoo where they encouraged the kids to come dressed in their costumes instead.

When Daylight Saving Time expired, our Tivo was off by an hour and we recorded Barney & Friends instead of Sesame Street. Maggie got a taste of Barney, and now her calls for Elmo have been supplanted by Barney. Ugh. It didn’t take long for her to start listening to music that drives me crazy.